owencb(Owen Cotton-Barratt)

How to treat prob­lems of un­known difficulty

Why we should err in both directions

De­ci­sion the­o­ries as heuristics

Es­ti­mat­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of research

Make your own cost-effec­tive­ness Fermi es­ti­mates for one-off problems

Fac­tor­ing cost-effectiveness

Ex­is­ten­tial Risk and Ex­is­ten­tial Hope: Definitions

Re­port—Allo­cat­ing risk miti­ga­tion across time

Neu­tral hours: a tool for valu­ing time

Coun­ter­fac­tual trade

Learn­ing to get things right first time

“Good judge­ment” and its components

Deferring

Don’t Over-Op­ti­mize Things

Per­ils of op­ti­miz­ing in so­cial contexts

Re­port from a civ­i­liza­tional ob­server on Earth

On the fu­ture of lan­guage models

Act­ing Wholesomely

Whole­some­ness and Effec­tive Altruism

Whole­some Culture