Carl Shulman, I will define arbtirary belief as something presupposed on faith and not exposed to testing.
My neighbor believes scratching off a lottery ticket with his lucky coin will improve his odds of winning. My neighbor’s daughter believes Santa Claus delivered her presents last week. And some people believe in cryonicism, life-extensionism, trans-humanism, and the singularity.
Eliezer, enough with your nonsense about cryonicism, life-extensionism, trans-humanism, and the singularity. These things have nothing to do with overcoming bias. They are just your arbitrary beliefs.