Ok, yes, the idea of using probabilities raises two issues—knowing you have the right inputs, and having the right perspective. Knowing and valuing the proper inputs to most questions seems impossible because of the subjectivity of most issues—while Bayesian judgements may still hold in the abstract, they are often not practical to use (or so I would argue). Second, what do you think about the idea of “perspectivism”—that there is only subjective truth in the world? You don’t have to sign on completely to Nietzsche’s theory to see its potential application, even if limited in scope. For example, a number of communication techniques employ a type of perspectivism because different people view issues through an “individual lens”. In either case, seeing the world as constructed of shades of grey seems more practical and accurate relative to using probabilities. This seems at odds with Bayesian judgments that assume that probabilities yield one correct answer AND that a person can and should be able to derive that correct answer.
The point i raise about communication techniques relates to your “offtopic” point. I assume you are a rationalist, and thus believe yourself to have superior decision making skills (at least relative to those that are not students (or masters) of rationality). If so, what is the value of your “off topic” point—you clearly were able to answer my question despite its shortcomings—why belittle someone that is trying to understand an article that is well-received by LW? Is the petty victory of pointing out my mistakes, from your perspective, the most rational way to answer my comment? I’m not insulted personally (this type of pettiness always makes me smile), but I’m interested in understanding the logic of your comments. From my perspective, rationality failed you in communicating in an effective way. It seems your arrogance could keep many from following and learning from LW—unless of course the goal is to limit the ranks of those that employ rationality. What am I missing? (and the answer is no, i haven’t considered using a spell or grammar checker other than the one provided by this site).
i don’t follow the relevance of article, as it seems quite obvious. the real problem with the black and white in the world of rationality is the assumption there is a universal answer to all questions. the idea of “grey” helps highlight that many answers have no one correct universal answer. what i dont understand about rationalists (LW rationalists) is that the live in a world in which everything is either right or wrong. this simplifies a world that is not so simple. what am i missing?