niceguyanon

Karma: 813

niceguyanon 8 Aug 2012 1:41 UTC
6 points
in reply to: D_Malik’s comment on: What are the optimal biases to overcome?
I am curious about using nicotine as a low cost way to improve performance, and build positive habits for exercise. However as an ex-tobacco smoker (4 years). I am very wary of my interest in nicotine because I suspect that my interest is based on latent cravings. After reading about the positive effects of nicotine, all I could think about was taking a pull of an e-cig, I didn’t give any thoughts at all to gums or patches, which should be a warning sign.

I am quite conflicted about this — I am very certain I would not go back to smoking tobacco, but I see my self using e-cigs as a daily habit rather than to promote habit learning on skills and activities that I want.

niceguyanon 20 Aug 2012 20:20 UTC
2 points
in reply to: prase’s comment on: [Link] Reddit, help me find some peace I’m dying young
I spent way too much time thinking about the same thing. It seems to me, if mtaran believes chance of scam is lower than Gwern’s, they should both agree that Gwern take the larger payout for smaller chance of being correct about it being a scam.

For what it’s worth I do not think that mtaran’s original bet is was that great for Gwern to begin with. A $1,000 to $100 bet implies odds of scam is at 9.1%, however Gwern stated his probability is 5%-10% putting the odds at the higher end of Gwern’s estimate. If Mtaran is truly confident he needs to offer at least $1,900 to $100 payout for as this will match Gwern’s lowest percentage for being a scam (5%).

niceguyanon 19 Sep 2012 17:27 UTC
0 points
on: A Less Mysterious Mindfulness Exercise

Think of your mind as a background against which mental events occur. They are observed by you but they aren’t you. So instead of thinking ‘I’m anxious’ you would think ‘I’m having the experience of anxiety.’

I have not tried the ACT method but it reminds of a trick that is similar to it, for overcoming negative emotional states. Although I have not yet put this into regular practice, I recently tried to decrease my anxiety and related emotional states by imagining observing my character in a game. My character in his open sand box world reality might be embarrassed or anxious, but the observer is not. When I do this I feel as the observer I am mindful of my character’s state of mind which might be in terrible anxiety, yet the observer is calm.

I am very intrigued with ACT as you presented it here and will try it. Thanks for sharing.

niceguyanon 20 Sep 2012 16:08 UTC
1 point
in reply to: RichardHughes’s comment on: New study on choice blindness in moral positions
I suspect that those who are most susceptible to moral proposition switches and their subsequent defense of switch, are also the same people that will deny the evidence when confronted with their switch. Much like the Dunning Kruger effect there will be people who fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy, even when confronted with evidence of such.

Edit: The paper states that they informed all participants of the true nature of the survey, but it does not go in to detail on whether participants actually acknowledged that their moral propositions were switched.

niceguyanon 26 Sep 2012 20:30 UTC
3 points
in reply to: wedrifid’s comment on: Share Your Checklists!
You have been taking modafinil for years now and pretty heavily. How have you dealt with tolerance? By taking more or cycling usage?

niceguyanon 16 Oct 2012 23:39 UTC
21 points
on: Open Thread, October 16-31, 2012
How trainable is the trait of Conscientiousness? Is it as rigid as I.Q?
What links here?
- Factions, inequality, and social justice by John_Maxwell (3 Dec 2012 19:37 UTC; 44 points)

niceguyanon 18 Oct 2012 3:52 UTC
6 points
in reply to: gwern’s comment on: Open Thread, October 16-31, 2012
Given the research that you cited, I have updated my probability estimate – that Conscientiousness is indeed rigid, higher from my original estimate of 75%. Wikipedia provides very accommodating definitions of Conscientiousness, inclusive of many behaviors such as being efficient and systematic, elements such as self-discipline and thoroughness, aspects of industriousness such as productivity and work ethic, and finally a strong association with procrastination.

The following are popular posts that try to understand and promote ways in which we can optimize some of the multiple facets of Conscientiousness listed above :

Scientific Self-Help: The State of Our Knowledge

My Algorithm for Beating Procrastination

Ugh fields](http://lesswrong.com/lw/21b/ugh_fields/

Defeating Ugh Fields In Practice

Anti-Akrasia Technique: Structured Procrastination

If it is not obvious by now, the following questions have me deeply conflicted:
- Is it a waste of time for most, to invest into these sort of posts, because Conscientiousness is rigid?
- If these sort of posts are not a waste of time, and you can optimize certain facets of Conscientiousness via the many methods provided, then is Conscientiousness still rigid?
- Perhaps Conscientiousness is boost-able, but on the low end? Perhaps the efficacy of these posts are over estimated?

niceguyanon 18 Oct 2012 4:29 UTC
6 points
in reply to: [deleted]’s comment on: What are the optimal biases to overcome?
Update

I eventually purchased Walgreen branded 21mg 24 hour release patches, which I cut into 4 equal doses. I use them for days when I go weight lifting or bouldering. I feel a noticeable alertness when I use the patches. I did not notice any increase desire to smoke and have no noticeable cravings on days when I am off the patch. I decided to stay away from any instant forms of nicotine such as e-cigs or gum.

niceguyanon 18 Oct 2012 5:07 UTC
0 points
on: How To Have Things Correctly
This is relevant to #4 – purchasing experiences are some of my best money well spent, especially eating. You can do so affordable by choosing interesting and tasty restaurants to dine at rather than expensive ones. I often find myself in a conversation with people reminiscing about how awesome a restaurant was. This positive shared experience is constantly brought up again and again; whereas I rarely find myself in a situation where I am reminded about how awesome an object is to me.

niceguyanon 26 Oct 2012 19:46 UTC
0 points
on: If we live in a simulation, what does that imply?
[Added] The simulations are stacked.

Just a few question for this proposal:
- Wouldn’t the infinitely stacking simulations lag and further increase the costs to support the simulation in the level below it.?
- Is it more likely that, if we are in a simulation, we are “close” to “basement level” rather than far out in an infinitely stacking simulation because the basement level will find it too costly to run an infinitely stacking simulation?
The simulators are much like us, or at least are our post-human descendants.

I estimate this particular proposal to be very low. We might just be the by-product of, or one of many civilizations of, a simulation. Humanity and its time of existence might just be a blip on the way to the real reason of the simulation – a civilization that will exist billions of years from now. In other words, perhaps we are merely the extras in a movie in which the audience have come to watch the stars.

niceguyanon 2 Nov 2012 17:20 UTC
6 points
on: Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012
You may have heard of this experiment in which participants were able to lose a significant amount of weight using a game theory concept of the credible threat. Participants risked public humiliation by exposing their out-of-shape bodies on a JumboTron. I wonder if this would work on an online community. Finding a trusted third party that is precommitted to posting pictures of participants’ bodies in underwear probably isn’t very hard, but something tells me the average Less-wronger would not find this type of humiliation a sufficiently motivating negative reinforcement. I have no intentions of participating in such a game – just wanted to share something on an open thread.

niceguyanon 3 Nov 2012 23:07 UTC
4 points
on: Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012
Why is there such a large statistical “arbitrage” opportunity on Intrade right now? I am not all too familiar with prediction markets but Obama re-elected at $6.61 ask at current prices and Obama is predicted to be 84% likely to win seems like a large enough spread to make this a smart bet.

niceguyanon 6 Nov 2012 19:55 UTC
0 points
in reply to: A1987dM’s comment on: Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012
Are you above average in looks and status? If yes, then whatever cues you are using will probably result in less false positives than an ole regular chap. My personal experience suggests that anyone romantically/sexually attracted to you will do anything to either see you, or reschedule to see you. There is, in my opinion, a 75% chance of someone being disinterested in you if they are “busy” when asking them to hang out. If they do not reschedule or make any attempt to reschedule there is a 98% of them being disinterested. This only works on guys/gals that you are not already familiar friends with because friends will turn you down because they know they will see you again.

niceguyanon 7 Nov 2012 17:49 UTC
0 points
in reply to: palladias’s comment on: Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012
I made a comment about this a few days ago and was seriously contemplating funding an account. It was too close to election day and was nervous I wasn’t going to be able to get my account funded in time while the edge was still high so I decided not to. I believe I will wait to fund because the other products on InTrade lack either market depth of bid/ask or overt mis-pricing, it wouldn’t make any sense to fund now. Some Senate and gubernatorial contracts literally have no market depth.

niceguyanon 8 Nov 2012 0:29 UTC
4 points
in reply to: palladias’s comment on: Open Thread, November 1-15, 2012
The fee is $20 for processing a wire withdrawal and 4 Euros for a check withdrawal.

niceguyanon 15 Nov 2012 15:01 UTC
8 points
on: A summary of the Hanson-Yudkowsky FOOM debate
As someone who has not yet read through all the sequences and found it difficult on a few occasions where I attempted to follow the Hanson-Yudkowsky FOOM debate, I find this summary very helpful.

niceguyanon 21 Nov 2012 17:50 UTC
0 points
on: Open Thread, November 16–30, 2012
How do some of you deal with value dissonance or conflicting values?

niceguyanon 27 Dec 2012 15:34 UTC
1 point
on: Open Thread, December 16-31, 2012
Why is it fun to be bad? I’ve heard actors say its more fun playing the bad guy. Also, I find the thought of stealing millions of dollars and getting away with it, thrilling, but not very nice.

niceguyanon 18 Jan 2013 21:21 UTC
0 points
on: My simple hack for increased alertness and improved cognitive functioning: very bright light
I wonder if wiring bright lights to turn on automatically will lead to more alertness in the morning. I find alarm clocks jarring and the first 5 minutes of being awake feels awful. Perhaps having light wake you is more natural?

niceguyanon 22 Jan 2013 16:38 UTC
−1 points
on: I attempted the AI Box Experiment (and lost)
I am a little confused here, perhaps someone can help. The point of the AI experiment is to show how easy or dangerous it would be to simply box an AI as opposed to making it friendly first.

If I am fairly convinced that a transhuman AI could convince a trained rationalist to let it out – what’s the problem (tongue in cheek)? When the gatekeepers made the decision they made, wouldn’t that decision be timeless? Aren’t these gatekeepers now convinced that we should let the same boxed AI out again and again? Did the gatekeepers lose, because of a temporary moment of weakness or has the gatekeeper fundamentally changed his views?

EDIT: At the risk of drawing ire from those who find my comment disagreeable, but do not say why, I would like clarify that I find the AI boxing experiment extremely fascinating and take UFAI very seriously. I have some questions that I am asking help with, because I am not an expert. If you think these questions are inappropriate, well, I guess I can just asked them on the open thread.
What links here?
- niceguyanon's comment on I attempted the AI Box Experiment again! (And won—Twice!) by Tuxedage (5 Sep 2013 13:03 UTC; 1 point)