I think this is very well-made and I already have uses for it.
I’m not sure how intuitive it would be for someone who really doesn’t know math, and who was new to the concept of bayes’ theorem entirely. It’s easy to forget how confusing things (especially math-related things) can be once you have the benefit of hindsight.
I think something like a “show me an example” button that fills it with realistic data could help. With descriptive labels that connect the written description on the right with the different components in the visual representation. As well as a clearer “start here” visual on the screen. I know it seems obvious that “How to use” is where to start, but it didn’t immediately draw my attention when I opened the page, and I think that helps with accessibility.
If you really wanted to push accessibility, a “wizard” that asks questions to help you fill out the data, and that help clarify what questions those percentages are actually an answer to.
Really I think it’s great as-is. I only think it could be improved a little considering goal 2.
Comment on:
This morning I was thinking about trying to find some sort of written account of the best versions and/or most charitable interpretations of the views and arguments of the “Not-worried-about-x-risk” people. But written by someone who is concerned about X-risk, because when non-x-risk people try to explain what they think, I genuinely feel like they are speaking a different language. And this causes me a reasonable amount of stress, because so many people who I would consider significantly smarter than me and better than me at thinking about things… aren’t worried about x-risk. But I can’t understand them.
So, when I saw the title of this post and read the first sentence, I was pretty excited, because I thought it had a good chance of being exactly what I was looking for. But after reading it, I think it just increased my feeling of not understanding. Anytime I try to imagine myself holding or defending these views, I always come to the conclusion that my primary motivation would be “I want these things to be true”. But I also know that most of these people are very capable of recognizing when they believe something just because they want to, and I don’t really think that’s compelling as a complete explanation for their position.
I don’t even know if this is a “complaint” about the explanation presented here, or the views themselves. Because I don’t understand the views themselves well enough to separate the two.