@A Pickup Artist
I got the point of Eliezer’s post, and I don’t see why I’m wrong. Could you tell me more specifically than “for the reasons stated” why I’m wrong? And while you’re at it, explain to me your optimal strategy in AnneC’s variation of the game (you’re shot if you get one wrong), assuming you can’t effectively cheat.
(Incidentally, and somewhat off-topic, there’s a beautiful puzzle with a similar setup — see “Names in Boxes” on the first page of http://math.dartmouth.edu/~pw/solutions.pdf. The solutions are included, but try to figure it out for yourself. It’s worth it.)
I’ll concede the point on routines. Since so much of human interaction is scripted anyway (where are you from? what do you do? etc.), the difference between using canned material and not is hard to pin down. I’d love to see a study done on the subject, but it would be devilishly difficult to design a good one.
The assumption behind this post, as AnneC touched on, is that higher scores are linearly correlated to what is perceived as a good outcome. Guessing blue every time will guarantee a worst case and best case outcome of 70%; as such, guessing randomly becomes a much better strategy if the player puts a significant premium on scoring, say, 95% or higher. Whether this valuation is rationally justifiable is another question entirely (though an important one).
The same assumption lies behind A Pickup Artist’s post. It all depends on your objective: if you want to sleep with as many women as possible, routines are probably the best bet, though likely it depends on your personality. If instead you are looking for deep, meaningful relationships with women, routines may have a place, but natural game will take you further.