That could represent one step in a general trend of subsuming many detailed systems into fewer simpler systems. Or, it could represent a technology being newly viable, and the simplest applications of it being explored first.
For the former to be the case, this simplification process would need to keep happening at higher and higher abstraction levels. We’d explore a few variations on an AI architecture, then get a new insight that eclipses all these variations, taking the part we were tweaking and turning it into just another parameter for the system to learn by itself. Then we’d try some variations of this new simpler architecture, until we discover an insight that eclipses all these variations, etc. In this way, our AI systems would become increasingly general without any increase in complexity.
Without this kind of continuing trend, I’d expect increasing capability in NN-based software will have to be achieved in the same way as in regular old software: integrating more subsystems, covering more edge cases, generally increasing complexity and detail.
While I find Robin’s model more convincing than Eliezer’s, I’m still pretty uncertain.
That said, two pieces of evidence that would push me somewhat strongly towards the Yudkowskian view:
A fairly confident scientific consensus that the human brain is actually simple and homogeneous after all. This could perhaps be the full blank-slate version of Predictive Processing as Scott Alexander discussed recently, or something along similar lines.
Long-run data showing AI systems gradually increasing in capability without any increase in complexity. The AGZ example here might be part of an overall trend in that direction, but as a single data point it really doesn’t say much.