Eliezer,
I’m wondering about the build up to becoming a Bayesian. Do you think it’s necessary for a person to understand Traditional Rationality as a mode of thinking before they can appreciate Bayes?
Intuitively, I would suspect that an understanding and even appreciation of ol’ fashioned either/or thinking is a necessary foundation for probabilities.
Sorry if this is out of left field. My wife just left for work—she’s a pre-school teacher—and I was thinking of how the lesson might be applied to her students (who are admittedly far too young for this sort of thing just yet.)
Why is it that I suspect Constant didn’t guess the rule properly?
Isn’t it the entire point of the post that confirmation bias is the tendency NOT TO CHECK ASSUMPTIONS?