I have to push back some, though: is our internet world not radically different from the pre internet world? Have assumptions really remained static since the birth of many multi billion dollar enterprises that don’t ship tangible products? What did the models of the 1980s say about 2026? I suppose I’m not pushing back, and more genuinely asking.
I don’t disagree that the advancement of AI will drastically change the world, but I don’t think it will happen all at once and overnight. Even if whatever “radical change” is defined as happens over the next 20-30 years, while that’s a blink of an eye in history, that’s long enough in day-to-day human experience for the illusion of Nothing Ever Happens. We have Waymo and Claude Code, are we sure it hasn’t happened yet?
From a programmers perspective: economic modeling during world altering technological advancement seems like a nightmare—but the assumptions you’re challenging and questions you’re asking are crucial if any real attempt is to be made. What a time to be alive!
Really nice read, thanks.
I have to push back some, though: is our internet world not radically different from the pre internet world? Have assumptions really remained static since the birth of many multi billion dollar enterprises that don’t ship tangible products? What did the models of the 1980s say about 2026? I suppose I’m not pushing back, and more genuinely asking.
I don’t disagree that the advancement of AI will drastically change the world, but I don’t think it will happen all at once and overnight. Even if whatever “radical change” is defined as happens over the next 20-30 years, while that’s a blink of an eye in history, that’s long enough in day-to-day human experience for the illusion of Nothing Ever Happens. We have Waymo and Claude Code, are we sure it hasn’t happened yet?
From a programmers perspective: economic modeling during world altering technological advancement seems like a nightmare—but the assumptions you’re challenging and questions you’re asking are crucial if any real attempt is to be made. What a time to be alive!