There is a lot of what I call “noise” in this case. Things that MAY apply, but not all of them carry the same weight, thus it becomes necessary to organize my thought processes. I start with the hard evidence FIRST, not the other way around. I do not look at the people and then find evidence to implicate them, I look at the evidence first and then find the people.
By “hard evidence”, I mean that evidence that can be observed directly or by repeatable scientific methods.
I refine my thought process even further by using these principles which state: 1. The simplest explanation that fits the facts is usually the correct one. 2. the more outlandish a theory is the greater the amount of evidence is required to support it, and 3. The further away you move from a causal event the less accurate your observations will be.
With that as a guide, the DNA of Rudy Guede inside Kercher becomes a white hot beam of guilt, and Knox’s cartwheels with the police has almost no luminescence at all.
Given how much evidence is in the room where Kercher was killed leads you directly to Rudy Guede. The bedroom is the key to this case as that is where the murder took place. As you move further away from the bedroom, you are less likely to find direct connection to the killer or killers, so as I move out of the bedroom other things like mixed DNA in a bathroom of people who co-habituate get less consideration.
Given the preponderance of evidence that there is of Guede, logically then, this must also be true for Knox and Sollecito if the prosecution’s theory of the crime is to hold true. However, no such preponderance of evidence exists for them. Knox’s presence is non existent according the the physical evidence, and Sollecito’s hinges on a bra clasp found 47 days after the crime. The more outlandish a theory is the greater the amount of evidence is required to support it, ergo which version of the crime does the evidence and logic support:
That a known burglar, involved in three separate break-in incidents in the weeks prior to the murder broke in and robbed, assaulted and murdered Kercher.
Or
That new lovers Knox and Sollecito with no criminal history whatsoever, conspired with relative unknown Guede to involve Kercher in some sex game and inadvertently killed her?
This leaves Knox, Sollecito and Lumumba footnotes in this story. Stories about bleach purchases, hip wiggling, knives in a residence not connected to the scene, Myspace pages, emials and raunchy tabloid stories about an attractive American female and her Italian boyfriend are relatively benign compared to fingerprints in blood, feces in the toilet and DNA inside the victim.
Using THIS method, which is the traditional method of deduction leads you to the guilty party. Using disassociated bits of information that you then try to connect to hard evidence found latter only leads to confusion. Bragging about it only leads to a need for obfuscation when the hard evidence contradicts your theory.
komponisto, can I just say that you have very eloquently voiced my very thoughts on this case. In my blog article, “Logic Trumps Innuendo” I wrote the following:
“As I surf the net, reading a variety of comments in regards to this case there is much speculation about evidence in this case. Much of it was not used at trial, but somehow made it into the public consciousness through ongoing press leaks during the investigation, such as:
“Knox was seen with a mop and bucket the morning of the murder.” What does that mean exactly? The innuendo would be that she cleaned the crime scene, but see the logic problems posed by that below.
“Knox purchased bleach the morning of the murder, there are receipts.” No receipts were presented at trial, but even if there were what how is that probative?
“The found the murder weapon in Sollecito’s flat.” They found his knife, in his flat, in his drawer. Logic alone makes it unlikely that this is the murder weapon, and the prosecution’s own analysis reinforces this. See logic question below as to why.
“Meredith’s bra had Sollecito’s DNA on it.” Left on the floor of Knox’s flat for 47 days after the murder, a variety of DNA including Sollecito’s was found on the seperated clasp, not the bra itself.
… and on and on. I offer no explanation in this article for these, but simply pose some logic questions that address conflicting and incompatible ideas with the facts. This approach certainly reveals some troubling problems with the case against Knox and Sollecito. The unspoken question at the end of each of these is simply, “If this is so, how is that possible?”
Logic problem 1: They had the temerity to properly dispose of their bloody clothes and shoes, but then took the murder weapon home, cleaned it thoroughly, and put it back in the drawer?
Logic Problem 2: They cleaned the knife so well that luminal had no reaction, no blood was found on the knife, but the low copy skin DNA of the victim somehow remained on the blade???
Logic Problem 3: With a mop and bucket they somehow managed to selectively clean the murder scene clean of their DNA and fingerprints but leave behind Rudy Guede’s??
Logic Problem 4: The bra clasp collected 47 days after the murder had Sollecito’s DNA on it, but the bra itself did not???
Logic Problem 5: Meredith Kercher’s bedroom door was locked from the inside and had to be broken down to gain entry. How did Knox get in there and remove all of her and Sollecito’s fingerprints and DNA and leave behind Rudy Guede’s?”
I too have felt this case begs for the the application of Occam’s Razor. You simply can’t connect Knox and Sollecito to Guede, much less put them into some three way sexual tryst. My logic circuits implode at the prosecutor’s inane theory, which to prove you would need significantly more evidence than what was presented at trial.