So is the propensity to say, “I knew it instantaneously” a kissing cousin of the hindsight bias?
p=.02 the first 3 conscious thoughts were, sequentially: “I guess I really am living in the Future. Thank goodness it wasn’t nuclear. and then The overreaction to this will be ten times worse than the original event.”
I can see the utility in starting off the post with such a narrative (grabbing attention and establishing svengali authority), and don’t doubt those 3 thoughts popped up fairly quickly, in one form or another.
I know it’s effective, but I expect a little better.
I’ve always used motorcycle fatalites as the yardstick to put it in perspective; 9-11 came up just short.
I suspected we might be in trouble when they floated the story that Bush didn’t return to Washington because of a credible threat to Air Force One, a threat in which, the supposed terrorists were more concerned with establishing credibility than carrying out their attach and thus used some sort of code word that only someone with inside knowledge would have.
It was perfectly reasonable for Bush to put a half dozen states between himself and the most likely nuclear target (no one knew what might happen). But they were worried it looked bad, un-leaderlike, cowardly, when it was quite pragmatic. The fact they were willing to lie instead of telling even moderately tough truths did not bode well.
Consider all the loco 9/11 theories. There is one that almost doesn’t sound loco. What if it had been necessary to shoot down a passenger jet to save some unknown target, but afterwards it was discovered that some on board had been mounting an assault on the cabin, and had called loved ones as well?