Alvin Ånestrand

Karma: 135

Author of the Forecasting AI Futures blog. Constantly thinking about the potentials and risks of future AI systems.

AI and Biological Risk: Forecasting Key Capability Thresholds

Alvin Ånestrand2 Oct 2025 14:06 UTC

7 points

4 comments11 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

The ultimate goal

Alvin Ånestrand5 Jul 2025 19:10 UTC

10 points

3 comments5 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Forecasting AI Forecasting

Alvin Ånestrand23 Jun 2025 13:39 UTC

8 points

4 comments6 min readLW link

Powerful Predictions

Alvin Ånestrand5 Jun 2025 10:44 UTC

2 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

AI 2027 - Rogue Replication Timeline

Alvin Ånestrand30 May 2025 13:46 UTC

33 points

3 comments7 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

What if Agent-4 breaks out?

Alvin Ånestrand15 May 2025 9:15 UTC

12 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

Anticipating AI: Keeping Up With What We Build

Alvin Ånestrand24 Apr 2025 15:23 UTC

2 points

0 comments11 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Emergent Misalignment and Emergent Alignment

Alvin Ånestrand3 Apr 2025 8:04 UTC

5 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

Forecasting AI Futures Resource Hub

Alvin Ånestrand19 Mar 2025 17:26 UTC

2 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Musings on Scenario Forecasting and AI

Alvin Ånestrand6 Mar 2025 12:28 UTC

10 points

0 comments11 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Forecasting Uncontrolled Spread of AI

Alvin Ånestrand22 Feb 2025 13:05 UTC

2 points

0 comments10 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Probability of AI-Caused Disaster

Alvin Ånestrand12 Feb 2025 19:40 UTC

2 points

2 comments10 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Forecasting AGI: Insights from Prediction Markets and Metaculus

Alvin Ånestrand4 Feb 2025 13:03 UTC

13 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

The Alignment Mapping Program: Forging Independent Thinkers in AI Safety—A Pilot Retrospective

Alvin Ånestrand, Jonas Hallgren and Utilop

10 Jan 2025 16:22 UTC

31 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Efficient Learning: Memorization

Alvin Ånestrand16 Apr 2023 17:58 UTC

4 points

2 comments5 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)