This resoning works good if I assume that I have average IQ—and so my predictions are averege and so I should not try to predict the market. But most people think that they are smarter then most people. So do the traders.
Smartest traders can first notice trends in psevdorandom enviroment. But most traders mistakenly think that they are smartest.
It is interesting to mention that Petrov was not simple and ordinary officier in the bunker.
He was an author of instructions for red button. He took this duty that day occasionaly, just ‘for rest’. And his own instruction prescribed him to start the war. But being an author of the instruction, he understood that it is wrong. If any other were on his place his instruction will kill all of us.