Filtered Evidence, Filtered Arguments

This is a collection of posts relating to central confusions I have, or have had, about:

  • Filtered evidence.

  • Conservation of expected evidence.

  • Outside view vs inside view.

  • Motivated cognition.

Mis­takes with Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Evidence

Ex­pla­na­tion vs Rationalization

Time­less Modesty?


Think­ing About Filtered Ev­i­dence Is (Very!) Hard

Sub­tle Forms of Con­fir­ma­tion Bias

Gears Level & Policy Level

Plac­ing Your­self as an In­stance of a Class

The Prob­le­matic Third Per­son Perspective

Con­fu­sions Con­cern­ing Pre-Rationality