if the colony works at all, there will be a path where the amount of Earth resources required to sustain it shrinks over time due to market forces
Why do you think that? On earth, colonies survived because they were able to secure a comparative advantage in the production of goods or services, which allowed them to be a net economic benefit to the originating country. What comparative advantage does Mars possess?
Any Martian colony, under the current technological regime, will require heavy economic subsidies for decades, possibly centuries. Who would pay for it? It’s one thing to pay a few billion dollars to send a few dozen astronauts to plant the flag and collect some scientific data. It’s quite another thing to spend trillions to support a population of thousands for little to no discernible benefit.
Not sure what Lincoln hand in mind regarding market forces, but one reason the cost to sustain the colony over time should shrink is just tech improvement. Operating the colony (at a given standard of living) should get cheaper over time.
Unless there’s a discontinuity (i.e. something like a space elevator resulting in more than one order of magnitude reduction in cost per ton to orbit) I suspect it would still be impossible to sustain a Martian colony for a nontrivial number of people. The physics and chemistry of conventional rockets just won’t allow it.
Why do you think that? On earth, colonies survived because they were able to secure a comparative advantage in the production of goods or services, which allowed them to be a net economic benefit to the originating country. What comparative advantage does Mars possess?
Any Martian colony, under the current technological regime, will require heavy economic subsidies for decades, possibly centuries. Who would pay for it? It’s one thing to pay a few billion dollars to send a few dozen astronauts to plant the flag and collect some scientific data. It’s quite another thing to spend trillions to support a population of thousands for little to no discernible benefit.
Not sure what Lincoln hand in mind regarding market forces, but one reason the cost to sustain the colony over time should shrink is just tech improvement. Operating the colony (at a given standard of living) should get cheaper over time.
Unless there’s a discontinuity (i.e. something like a space elevator resulting in more than one order of magnitude reduction in cost per ton to orbit) I suspect it would still be impossible to sustain a Martian colony for a nontrivial number of people. The physics and chemistry of conventional rockets just won’t allow it.