Seconding Scott Aaronson (especially on the tragedy of the US getting nukes too late) and Michael G R, though with the suggestion that the “demo” bomb could have been Trinity.
Eliezer: I think that the hypocrisy of the US is mostly in our maintaining a large arsenal but telling others that they can’t have any, not in having used nukes. I don’t see a case for .1% probability increase for nuclear war without using the bomb which is stronger than the case for the inverse, but I do see a million dead Japanese. Also, in terms of catastrophic risks, a couple more years of total war to encourage ultimately disastrous cultural changes in the US.
What I really want to know about WWII is why Hitler wasn’t assassinated before it was too late. Surely if the situation with Archduke Ferdinand teaches us anything it’s that Assassination can solve all of one’s geo-political problems ;-(
Seconding Scott Aaronson (especially on the tragedy of the US getting nukes too late) and Michael G R, though with the suggestion that the “demo” bomb could have been Trinity.
Eliezer: I think that the hypocrisy of the US is mostly in our maintaining a large arsenal but telling others that they can’t have any, not in having used nukes. I don’t see a case for .1% probability increase for nuclear war without using the bomb which is stronger than the case for the inverse, but I do see a million dead Japanese. Also, in terms of catastrophic risks, a couple more years of total war to encourage ultimately disastrous cultural changes in the US.
What I really want to know about WWII is why Hitler wasn’t assassinated before it was too late. Surely if the situation with Archduke Ferdinand teaches us anything it’s that Assassination can solve all of one’s geo-political problems ;-(