Can I try to parse out what you’re saying about stacked sigmoids? Because it seems weird to me. Like, in that view, it still seems like showing a trendline is some evidence that it’s not “interesting”. I feel like this because I expect the asymptote of the AlphaGo sigmoid to be independent of MCTS bots, so surely you should see some trends where AlphaGo (or equivalent) was invented first, and jumped the trendline up really fast. So not seeing jumps should indicate that it is more a gradual progression, because otherwise, if they were independent, about half the time the more powerful technique should come first.
The “what counter argument can I come up with” part of me says, tho, that how quickly the sigmoid grows likely depends on lots of external factors (like compute available or something). So instead of sometimes seeing a sigmoid that grows twice as fast as the previous ones, you should expect one that’s not just twice as tall, but twice as wide, too. And if you have that case, you should expect the “AlphaGo was invented first” sigmoid to be under the MCTS bots sigmoid for some parts of the graph, where it then reaches the same asymptote as AlphaGo in the mainline. So, if we’re in the world where AlphaGo is invented first, you can make gains by inventing MCTS bots, which will also set the trendline. And so, seeing a jump would be less “AlphaGo was invented first” and more “MCTS bots were never invented during the long time when they would’ve outcompeted AlphaGo version −1″
Does that seem accurate, or am I still missing something?
Can I try to parse out what you’re saying about stacked sigmoids? Because it seems weird to me. Like, in that view, it still seems like showing a trendline is some evidence that it’s not “interesting”. I feel like this because I expect the asymptote of the AlphaGo sigmoid to be independent of MCTS bots, so surely you should see some trends where AlphaGo (or equivalent) was invented first, and jumped the trendline up really fast. So not seeing jumps should indicate that it is more a gradual progression, because otherwise, if they were independent, about half the time the more powerful technique should come first.
The “what counter argument can I come up with” part of me says, tho, that how quickly the sigmoid grows likely depends on lots of external factors (like compute available or something). So instead of sometimes seeing a sigmoid that grows twice as fast as the previous ones, you should expect one that’s not just twice as tall, but twice as wide, too. And if you have that case, you should expect the “AlphaGo was invented first” sigmoid to be under the MCTS bots sigmoid for some parts of the graph, where it then reaches the same asymptote as AlphaGo in the mainline. So, if we’re in the world where AlphaGo is invented first, you can make gains by inventing MCTS bots, which will also set the trendline. And so, seeing a jump would be less “AlphaGo was invented first” and more “MCTS bots were never invented during the long time when they would’ve outcompeted AlphaGo version −1″
Does that seem accurate, or am I still missing something?