You mentioned things like women who lie about contraception and split second decisions, which IMO are nonsense to bring up in this context. But going back to condoms: yes, I believe that 3% figure to be garbage. The 3% figure is average and based on people self-reporting. But in practice, condoms are hard to break, and even if they do break it’s easy to realise. Morning after pills are a thing for “accidents” you notice. So IMO reasonably conscientious people that actually use condoms properly (rather than just saying so in questionnaires) and double down with morning after pill in case of accidents will achieve a much better rate. 3% is an upper bound, because it includes a lot of confounders that skew the rate to be worse.
You mentioned things like women who lie about contraception and split second decisions, which IMO are nonsense to bring up in this context. But going back to condoms: yes, I believe that 3% figure to be garbage. The 3% figure is average and based on people self-reporting. But in practice, condoms are hard to break, and even if they do break it’s easy to realise. Morning after pills are a thing for “accidents” you notice. So IMO reasonably conscientious people that actually use condoms properly (rather than just saying so in questionnaires) and double down with morning after pill in case of accidents will achieve a much better rate. 3% is an upper bound, because it includes a lot of confounders that skew the rate to be worse.