I would hesitate to use failure during “SIAI’s early years” to justify the ease or difficulty of the task. First, the organization seems far more capable now than it was at the time. Second, the landscape has shifted dramatically even in the last few years. Limited AI is continuing to expand and with it discussion of the potential impacts (most of it ill-informed, but still).
While I share your skepticism about pamphlets as such, I do tend to think that MIRI has a greater chance of shifting the odds away from UFAI with persuasion/education rather than trying to build an FAI or doing mathematical research.
I agree and would also add that “Eliezer failed in 2001 to convince many people” does not imply “Eliezer in 2013 is incapable of persuading people”. From his writings, I understand he has changed his views considerably in the last dozen years.
Who says the speculation of potential impacts is damagingly ill-informed? Just because people think of “AI” and then jump to “robots” and then “robots who are used to replace workers, destroy all our jobs, and then rise up in revolution as a robotic resurrection of Communism” doesn’t mean they’re not correctly reasoning that the creation of AI is dangerous.
I would hesitate to use failure during “SIAI’s early years” to justify the ease or difficulty of the task. First, the organization seems far more capable now than it was at the time. Second, the landscape has shifted dramatically even in the last few years. Limited AI is continuing to expand and with it discussion of the potential impacts (most of it ill-informed, but still).
While I share your skepticism about pamphlets as such, I do tend to think that MIRI has a greater chance of shifting the odds away from UFAI with persuasion/education rather than trying to build an FAI or doing mathematical research.
I agree and would also add that “Eliezer failed in 2001 to convince many people” does not imply “Eliezer in 2013 is incapable of persuading people”. From his writings, I understand he has changed his views considerably in the last dozen years.
Who says the speculation of potential impacts is damagingly ill-informed? Just because people think of “AI” and then jump to “robots” and then “robots who are used to replace workers, destroy all our jobs, and then rise up in revolution as a robotic resurrection of Communism” doesn’t mean they’re not correctly reasoning that the creation of AI is dangerous.