Generally a well-argued post; I enjoyed it even though I didn’t agree with all of it.
I do want to point out the bitter lesson when it comes to capabilities increase. On current priors, it seems like that intelligence should be something that can solve a lot of tasks at the same time. This would point towards higher capabilities in individual AIs, especially once you add online learning to the mix. The AGI will not have a computational storage limit for the amount of knowledge it can have. The division of agents you propose will most likely be able to made into the same agent, it’s more about storage retrieval time here and storing an activation module for “play chess” is something that will not be computationally intractable for an AGI to do.
This means that the most probable current path forward is into highly capable general AI that generalise across tasks.
Generally a well-argued post; I enjoyed it even though I didn’t agree with all of it.
I do want to point out the bitter lesson when it comes to capabilities increase. On current priors, it seems like that intelligence should be something that can solve a lot of tasks at the same time. This would point towards higher capabilities in individual AIs, especially once you add online learning to the mix. The AGI will not have a computational storage limit for the amount of knowledge it can have. The division of agents you propose will most likely be able to made into the same agent, it’s more about storage retrieval time here and storing an activation module for “play chess” is something that will not be computationally intractable for an AGI to do.
This means that the most probable current path forward is into highly capable general AI that generalise across tasks.