Luna Lovegood and the Bayesian Conspiracy

“Is there somewhere we can talk privately?” said Luna.

“How privately?” said Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres.

“I need to talk to you about the conspiracy,” said Luna. It was a risk but it was better than using the words “Rotfang” and “Department of Mysteries”?

“I don’t know what you’re talking about,” is what Harry said. What he actually did was wordlessly cast 27 security spells. Harry opened a drawer to a trunk of his trunk. The drawer contained a staircase into a pocket dimension. Harry stepped into the trunk. Luna followed him into a room full of books.

“Who told you about the Bayesian Conspiracy?” said Harry.

“Is that its internal codename?” said Luna.

“Wait a minute. I should confirm we’re both talking about the same organization. Which organization are you talking about?” said Harry.

“I’m talking about the secret organization created to advance our knowledge of magic. They basically run the government despite never being democratically elected. The Noble Houses, especially the House of Malfoy, are involved but only the Line of Merlin Unbroken is privy to all their deepest secrets. They possess Time Turners, Obliviate their enemies and are spearheading research into death itself. I suspect they have something to do with the reincarnation of Lord Voldemort too,” said Luna.

Harry’s face turned pale. “That is way more information than I believed was publicly available,” he said.

“Then you understand why I came to you of all people to discuss this sensitive matter,” said Luna.

“Do you seek to join the Conspiracy?” said Harry. He said it as menacingly as his could in his school robes.

“Silence and truth are antagonists,” Luna said, “Besides, keeping quiet doesn’t sound like fun.”

“If you’re not joining then what are you doing here?” said Harry.

“I was just curious,” said Luna.

Harry laughed. “I hope you’re not planning to reveal the Conspiracy’s existence,” he said.

“Corruption festers in secrecy. Sunlight is the best disinfectant,” said Luna.

“Open dialogue works until someone possesses dangerous knowledge,” said Harry.

“Like what?” said Luna.

“Like powerful magic spells,” said Harry.

“Such as?” said Luna.

“I can’t tell you,” said Harry.

Luna rolled her eyes. “Everyone who wants to suppress free speech says they possess dangerous knowledge.”

“Sometimes it’s true,” said Harry.

“Have you tested these secret ultra-powerful magic spells?” said Luna.

“Of course not. They’re too dangerous,” said Harry.

“Refusing to talk about a secret hypothesis you’re afraid to test is the least falsifiable thought process I’ve ever heard of,” said Luna.

Harry stared opemouthed, surrounded by books, as the naïve little Frequentist climbed the stairs out of the trunk and back into the real world.

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