No. The odds that the study supports the headline in the second example are 1⁄16. The formula he gives is
(final opinion on headline) = (initial gut feeling) * (study support for headline)
where the latter two are odds ratios. From context, “final opinion on headline” is pretty clearly supposed to be “opinion on whether the headline is true.”
No. The odds that the study supports the headline in the second example are 1⁄16. The formula he gives is
(final opinion on headline) = (initial gut feeling) * (study support for headline)
where the latter two are odds ratios. From context, “final opinion on headline” is pretty clearly supposed to be “opinion on whether the headline is true.”