On October 18, 1987, what sort of model of uncertainty of models one would have to have to say the uncertainty over the 20-sigma estimative was enough to allow it to be 3-sigma? 20-sigma, give 120 or take 17? Seems a bit extreme, and maybe not useful.
This seems to depend almost entirely on what other models you had. A 1% belief in a wider model (say one using a Cauchy distribution rather than a normal one) might have been sufficient to make the result considerably less surprising.
On October 18, 1987, what sort of model of uncertainty of models one would have to have to say the uncertainty over the 20-sigma estimative was enough to allow it to be 3-sigma? 20-sigma, give 120 or take 17? Seems a bit extreme, and maybe not useful.
This seems to depend almost entirely on what other models you had. A 1% belief in a wider model (say one using a Cauchy distribution rather than a normal one) might have been sufficient to make the result considerably less surprising.