Also, while the prior probability of winning is (should be) higher in the rationality group, and lower outside, there are likely still many more winners outside the rationality group, because there are so many more people outside it than within. Making use of the availability heuristic to estimate “winning” and decide whether rationality pays off won’t work well.
Also, while the prior probability of winning is (should be) higher in the rationality group, and lower outside, there are likely still many more winners outside the rationality group, because there are so many more people outside it than within. Making use of the availability heuristic to estimate “winning” and decide whether rationality pays off won’t work well.