Are you including models that are only used by their creator firm? I work as an ML researcher in big tech (I want to keep this account anon, but it’s one of MSFT/OAI, DM, Meta, Anthropic, xAI) and have access to tooling substantially better than what’s commercially available (proof by existence?), but that’s not really what my post is about. My main model for this actually panning out is something like:
Big tech company has control over AI lab
AI lab makes cracked SWE agent
Big tech company notices that releasing that SWE agent will undermine the rest of their software development business, so instead of licensing it out they only make it available to their own staff and perhaps business allies
I’m just clarifying because it’s barely even confidential information that engineers at AI labs have better models than engineers at small or mid-size tech firms, and I want to check what you’re actually betting on.
Are your concerns accounted for by this part of the description?
Unreleased models are not included. For example, if a model is not released because it risks causing human extinction, or because it is still being trained, or because it has a potty mouth, or because it cannot be secured against model extraction, or because it is undergoing recursive self-improvement, or because it is being used to generate synthetic data for another model, or any similar reason, that model is ignored for the purpose of this market.
However, if a model is ready for release, and is only not being released in order to monopolize its use in creating commercial software, then this counts as “exclusive use”.
I intended for “AI engineers use unreleased AI model to make better AI models” to not be included.
It is a slightly awkward thing to operationalize, I welcome improvements. We could also take this conversation to Manifold.
Are you including models that are only used by their creator firm? I work as an ML researcher in big tech (I want to keep this account anon, but it’s one of MSFT/OAI, DM, Meta, Anthropic, xAI) and have access to tooling substantially better than what’s commercially available (proof by existence?), but that’s not really what my post is about. My main model for this actually panning out is something like:
Big tech company has control over AI lab
AI lab makes cracked SWE agent
Big tech company notices that releasing that SWE agent will undermine the rest of their software development business, so instead of licensing it out they only make it available to their own staff and perhaps business allies
I’m just clarifying because it’s barely even confidential information that engineers at AI labs have better models than engineers at small or mid-size tech firms, and I want to check what you’re actually betting on.
Are your concerns accounted for by this part of the description?
I intended for “AI engineers use unreleased AI model to make better AI models” to not be included.
It is a slightly awkward thing to operationalize, I welcome improvements. We could also take this conversation to Manifold.