When you hear someone say “X is not evidence …”, remember that the Bayesian concept of evidence is not the only concept attached to that word. I know my understanding of the word evidence changed as I adopted the Bayesian worldview. My recollection of my prior use of the word is a bit hazy, but it was probably influenced a good deal by beliefs about what a court would admit as evidence.(This is a comment on the title of the post, not on Earl Warren’s rationalization).
That’s a good point. And clearly court standards for evidence are not the same as Bayesian standards; in court lots of things don’t count that should (like base rate probabilities), and some things count more than they should (like eyewitness testimony).
When you hear someone say “X is not evidence …”, remember that the Bayesian concept of evidence is not the only concept attached to that word. I know my understanding of the word evidence changed as I adopted the Bayesian worldview. My recollection of my prior use of the word is a bit hazy, but it was probably influenced a good deal by beliefs about what a court would admit as evidence.(This is a comment on the title of the post, not on Earl Warren’s rationalization).
That’s a good point. And clearly court standards for evidence are not the same as Bayesian standards; in court lots of things don’t count that should (like base rate probabilities), and some things count more than they should (like eyewitness testimony).