Doesn’t “contrarian” just mean “disagrees with the majority”? Any further logic-chopping seems pointless and defensive.
The fact that 98% of people are theists is evidence against atheism. I’m perfectly happy to admit this. I think there is other, stronger evidence for atheism, but the contrarian heuristic definitely argues for belief in God.
Similarly, believing that cryonics is a good investment is obviously contrarian. AGI is harder to say; most people probably haven’t thought about it.
It seems like the question you’re really trying to answer is “what is a good prior belief for things I am not an expert on?”
(I’m sorry about arguing over terminology, which is usually stupid, but this case seems egregious to me).
I wonder. Perhaps that 98% of people are theists is better evidence that theism is useful than that it’s correct. In fact, I think ihe 98%, or even an 80% figure, is pretty damn strong evidence that theism is useful; i.e. instrumentally rational. It’s basic microeconomics: if people didn’t derive value from religion, they’d stop doing it. To cite just one example, lukeprog has written previously about joining Scientology because they had best Toastmasters group. There are many other benefits to be had by professing theism.
However I’m not sure that this strong majority belief is particularly strong evidence that theism is correct, or epistemically rational. In particular if it were epistemically rational, I’d expect religions would be more similar than they are. To say that 98% of people believe in God, requires that one accept Allah, the Holy Trinity, and Hanuman as instances of “God”. However, adherents of various religions routinely claim that others are not worshipping God at all (though admittedly this is less common than it used to be). Is there some common core nature of “God” that most theists believe in? Possibly, but it’s a lot hazier. I’ve even heard some professed “theists” define God in such a way that it’s no more than the physical universe, or even one small group of actual, currently living, not-believed-to-be-supernatural people. (This happens on occasion in Alcoholics Anonymous, for members who don’t like accepting the “Higher Power”.)
At the least, majority beliefs and practice are stronger evidence of instrumental rationality than epistemic rationality.
Are there other cases where we have evidence that epistemic and instrumental rationality diverge? Perhaps the various instances of Illusory Superiority; for instance where the vast majority of people think they’re an above average driver or the Dunning-Krueger effect. Such beliefs may persist in the face of reality because they’re useful to people who hold these beliefs.
I don’t think it is so much that it suggests Theism is useful—rather that Theism is a concept which tends to propagate itself effectively, of which usefulness is one example. Effectively brainwashing participants at an early age is another. There almost certainly several factors, only some of which are good.
On the face of it, I also think that the fact that the majority believes something is evidence for that something. But then what about how consensus belief is also a function of time period?
How many times over the course of all human history has the consensus of average people been wrong about some fact about the universe? The consensus of say, what causes disease back in 1400 BCE is different than the consensus about the same today. What’s to say that this same consensus won’t point to something different 3400 years in the future?
It seems that looking at how many times the consensus has been wrong over the course of human history is actually evidence that “consensus”—without qualification (e.g. consensus of doctors, etc.) -- is more likely to be wrong than right; the consensus seems to be weak evidence against said position.
Seems to me that we’re more likely to remember instances where the expert consensus was wrong than instances where it wasn’t. The consensus among Classical Greek natural philosophers in 300 BC was that the earth was round, and it turns out they were absolutely right.
And I can only pick that out as an example because of the later myth regarding Christopher Columbus et al. There are probably hundreds of cases where consensus, rather than being overturned by some new paradigm, withstood all challenges and slowly fossilized into common knowledge.
Doesn’t “contrarian” just mean “disagrees with the majority”? Any further logic-chopping seems pointless and defensive.
The fact that 98% of people are theists is evidence against atheism. I’m perfectly happy to admit this. I think there is other, stronger evidence for atheism, but the contrarian heuristic definitely argues for belief in God.
Similarly, believing that cryonics is a good investment is obviously contrarian. AGI is harder to say; most people probably haven’t thought about it.
It seems like the question you’re really trying to answer is “what is a good prior belief for things I am not an expert on?”
(I’m sorry about arguing over terminology, which is usually stupid, but this case seems egregious to me).
I wonder. Perhaps that 98% of people are theists is better evidence that theism is useful than that it’s correct. In fact, I think ihe 98%, or even an 80% figure, is pretty damn strong evidence that theism is useful; i.e. instrumentally rational. It’s basic microeconomics: if people didn’t derive value from religion, they’d stop doing it. To cite just one example, lukeprog has written previously about joining Scientology because they had best Toastmasters group. There are many other benefits to be had by professing theism.
However I’m not sure that this strong majority belief is particularly strong evidence that theism is correct, or epistemically rational. In particular if it were epistemically rational, I’d expect religions would be more similar than they are. To say that 98% of people believe in God, requires that one accept Allah, the Holy Trinity, and Hanuman as instances of “God”. However, adherents of various religions routinely claim that others are not worshipping God at all (though admittedly this is less common than it used to be). Is there some common core nature of “God” that most theists believe in? Possibly, but it’s a lot hazier. I’ve even heard some professed “theists” define God in such a way that it’s no more than the physical universe, or even one small group of actual, currently living, not-believed-to-be-supernatural people. (This happens on occasion in Alcoholics Anonymous, for members who don’t like accepting the “Higher Power”.)
At the least, majority beliefs and practice are stronger evidence of instrumental rationality than epistemic rationality.
Are there other cases where we have evidence that epistemic and instrumental rationality diverge? Perhaps the various instances of Illusory Superiority; for instance where the vast majority of people think they’re an above average driver or the Dunning-Krueger effect. Such beliefs may persist in the face of reality because they’re useful to people who hold these beliefs.
I don’t think it is so much that it suggests Theism is useful—rather that Theism is a concept which tends to propagate itself effectively, of which usefulness is one example. Effectively brainwashing participants at an early age is another. There almost certainly several factors, only some of which are good.
On the face of it, I also think that the fact that the majority believes something is evidence for that something. But then what about how consensus belief is also a function of time period?
How many times over the course of all human history has the consensus of average people been wrong about some fact about the universe? The consensus of say, what causes disease back in 1400 BCE is different than the consensus about the same today. What’s to say that this same consensus won’t point to something different 3400 years in the future?
It seems that looking at how many times the consensus has been wrong over the course of human history is actually evidence that “consensus”—without qualification (e.g. consensus of doctors, etc.) -- is more likely to be wrong than right; the consensus seems to be weak evidence against said position.
Seems to me that we’re more likely to remember instances where the expert consensus was wrong than instances where it wasn’t. The consensus among Classical Greek natural philosophers in 300 BC was that the earth was round, and it turns out they were absolutely right.
And I can only pick that out as an example because of the later myth regarding Christopher Columbus et al. There are probably hundreds of cases where consensus, rather than being overturned by some new paradigm, withstood all challenges and slowly fossilized into common knowledge.