It’s pretty unlikely that two things with independent 30% odds of being true, are both true.
I’m not sure I’d call 9% (the combined probability of two independent 30% events) “pretty unlikely”—sure, it won’t happen in most cases, but out of every 11 similar situations, you would see it happen once, which adds up to plenty of 9% chance events happening all the time
I’m not sure I’d call 9% (the combined probability of two independent 30% events) “pretty unlikely”—sure, it won’t happen in most cases, but out of every 11 similar situations, you would see it happen once, which adds up to plenty of 9% chance events happening all the time