Wouldn’t the respective type of utilitarian already have the corresponding expectations on future GCs? If not, then they aren’t the type of utilitarian that they thought they were.
I’m not sure what you’re saying here. Are you saying that in general, a [total][average] utilitarian wagers for [large][small] populations?
So there’s a lower bound on the chance of meeting a GC 44e25 meters away.
Yep! (only if we become grabby though)
Lastly, the most interesting aspect is the symmetry between abiogenesis time and the remaining habitability time (only 500 million years left, not a billion like you mentioned).
What’s your reference for the 500 million lifespan remaining? I followed Hanson et al. in using in using the end of the oxygenated atmosphere as the end of the lifespan.
Just because you can extend the habitability window doesn’t mean you should when doing anthropic calculations due to reference class restrictions.
Yep, I agree. I don’t do the SSA update with reference class of observers-on-planets-of-total-habitability-X-Gy but agree that if I did, this 500 My difference would make a difference.
[edited]
I’m not sure what you’re saying here. Are you saying that in general, a [total][average] utilitarian wagers for [large][small] populations?
Yep! (only if we become grabby though)
What’s your reference for the 500 million lifespan remaining? I followed Hanson et al. in using in using the end of the oxygenated atmosphere as the end of the lifespan.
Yep, I agree. I don’t do the SSA update with reference class of observers-on-planets-of-total-habitability-X-Gy but agree that if I did, this 500 My difference would make a difference.