I expect AGI to emerge as part of the frontier model training run (and thus get a godshatter of human values), rather than only emerging after fine-tuning by a troll (and get a godshatter of reversed values), so I think “humans modified to be happy with something much cheaper than our CEV” is a more likely endstate than “humans suffering” (though, again, both much less likely than “humans dead”).
I expect AGI to emerge as part of the frontier model training run (and thus get a godshatter of human values), rather than only emerging after fine-tuning by a troll (and get a godshatter of reversed values), so I think “humans modified to be happy with something much cheaper than our CEV” is a more likely endstate than “humans suffering” (though, again, both much less likely than “humans dead”).