No. I think everything else is in crappy shape cause the Nuclear arsenal was always a priority for the Russian defense industry and most of the money and resources went there. I’ve noticed that the meme “perhaps Russian nukes don’t work” is getting increasingly popular which can have pretty bad consequences if the meme spreads and emboldens escalation.
It is like being incentivized to play Russian roulette because you hear bullets were made in a country that produced some other crappy products.
The main reason for everything being in a crappy state is almost certainly (>90%) widespread corruption.
Everyone who can is creaming off a little bit, leaving very little for the actual materiél and training. So shoddy materials, poor to no training, missing equipment, components and spares.
That said, while it is very likely that the Russian nuclear arsenal is in extremely poor state, and I’d possibly go as high as 50⁄50 that their ICBMs could launch but cannot be aimed (as that takes expensive components that are easy to steal/not deliver and hide that fact), missing the target by a hundred miles or more is basically irrelevant in the “ending the world” stakes.
A ‘tactical’ device doesn’t need much in the way of aiming, and on the assumption that it does in fact contain nuclear material there’s not a huge civilian difference between it exploding ‘as designed’ or “just” fizzling.
If only the initiator went off, the weapon disintegrated during launch/firing, or the weapon/aircraft was shot down, it would still spread radioactive material over a wide area.
While that wouldn’t be the “shock and awe” of a mushroom cloud, it’s still pretty devastating to normal life.
No. I think everything else is in crappy shape cause the Nuclear arsenal was always a priority for the Russian defense industry and most of the money and resources went there. I’ve noticed that the meme “perhaps Russian nukes don’t work” is getting increasingly popular which can have pretty bad consequences if the meme spreads and emboldens escalation.
It is like being incentivized to play Russian roulette because you hear bullets were made in a country that produced some other crappy products.
The main reason for everything being in a crappy state is almost certainly (>90%) widespread corruption.
Everyone who can is creaming off a little bit, leaving very little for the actual materiél and training.
So shoddy materials, poor to no training, missing equipment, components and spares.
That said, while it is very likely that the Russian nuclear arsenal is in extremely poor state, and I’d possibly go as high as 50⁄50 that their ICBMs could launch but cannot be aimed (as that takes expensive components that are easy to steal/not deliver and hide that fact), missing the target by a hundred miles or more is basically irrelevant in the “ending the world” stakes.
A ‘tactical’ device doesn’t need much in the way of aiming, and on the assumption that it does in fact contain nuclear material there’s not a huge civilian difference between it exploding ‘as designed’ or “just” fizzling.
If only the initiator went off, the weapon disintegrated during launch/firing, or the weapon/aircraft was shot down, it would still spread radioactive material over a wide area.
While that wouldn’t be the “shock and awe” of a mushroom cloud, it’s still pretty devastating to normal life.