As a side note, I wonder if I should have had him bet on a less specific series of events. The way the story is currently makes it almost sound like I’m just rehashing the “burdensome details” sequence, but what I was really trying to call out was the fairly specific fallacy of “X is all the information I have access too, therefore X is enough information to make the decision”.
Overall I wish I had put more thought into this story. I did let it simmer in mind for a few days after writing it but before posting it, but the decision to finally publish was kind of impulsive, and I didn’t try very hard to determine if it was comprehensible before doing so. Oops! I’ve updated towards “I need to do more work to make my writing clear”.
As a side note, I wonder if I should have had him bet on a less specific series of events. The way the story is currently makes it almost sound like I’m just rehashing the “burdensome details” sequence, but what I was really trying to call out was the fairly specific fallacy of “X is all the information I have access too, therefore X is enough information to make the decision”.
Overall I wish I had put more thought into this story. I did let it simmer in mind for a few days after writing it but before posting it, but the decision to finally publish was kind of impulsive, and I didn’t try very hard to determine if it was comprehensible before doing so. Oops! I’ve updated towards “I need to do more work to make my writing clear”.
Writing well is really hard. Thanks for sharing.