I’m not sure this means very much. How would we be able to tell?
Computers are already far superior to humans for many tasks. I expect more of the same in the future, with computers being delegated to take on increasingly complex tasks. I don’t however see that any “singularity” is likely—rather a relatively smooth progression from what is possible today towards more difficult problems that can be solved in the future.
Even supposing computers were to advance to a state of “intelligence” where they could say invent interesting new mathematics, I’m not sure that this would have any profound consequences, any more than a chess playing computer that can beat a human has any profound consequences.
It’s possible to imagine that a very powerful “intelligent” computer could somehow run amok, but we are so far from such a possibility that it hardly seems worth worrying about it now. I’d worry more about human dangers ( fascism, totalitarian regimes ) since they seem to appear and become dangerous quite frequently. For example, should we be worried about China?
“When will AGI be created?”
I’m not sure this means very much. How would we be able to tell?
Computers are already far superior to humans for many tasks. I expect more of the same in the future, with computers being delegated to take on increasingly complex tasks. I don’t however see that any “singularity” is likely—rather a relatively smooth progression from what is possible today towards more difficult problems that can be solved in the future.
Even supposing computers were to advance to a state of “intelligence” where they could say invent interesting new mathematics, I’m not sure that this would have any profound consequences, any more than a chess playing computer that can beat a human has any profound consequences.
It’s possible to imagine that a very powerful “intelligent” computer could somehow run amok, but we are so far from such a possibility that it hardly seems worth worrying about it now. I’d worry more about human dangers ( fascism, totalitarian regimes ) since they seem to appear and become dangerous quite frequently. For example, should we be worried about China?