I think your understanding is generally correct. The failure case I see is where people say “this problem was really really really hard, instead of one point, I’m going to award one thousand correctness points to everyone who predicted it”, and then end up surprised that most of those people still turn out to be cranks.
I think your understanding is generally correct. The failure case I see is where people say “this problem was really really really hard, instead of one point, I’m going to award one thousand correctness points to everyone who predicted it”, and then end up surprised that most of those people still turn out to be cranks.