2. We need to find as many future branches in which we are victorious as possible.
3. We try to preserve as many possible victorious branches as possible, and try to screen as many defeat branches as possible.
4. Once victory becomes likely, we can begin to discriminate between better or worse victories.
The strategy itself is essentially the rule we use for making interventions: the causal theory of success.
We need a reference class of victories, on which to base our theory of success.
We need a reference class of defeats, for the purposes of murphyjitsu. This seems to be unusually important, because it looks kind of like avoiding errors is the more important feature, the closer we get to total mastery of the environment. I think this is largely captured by things like doctrine and training, but we haven’t done a good job of capturing it in terms of decisions.
Related to: Macroscopic Predictions. This is kind of like using Gibbs Rule at the level of “interventions we can make” to predict victory.
Strategy is the search for victory.
Suppose we take search completely literally.
1. We have a current environment.
2. We need to find as many future branches in which we are victorious as possible.
3. We try to preserve as many possible victorious branches as possible, and try to screen as many defeat branches as possible.
4. Once victory becomes likely, we can begin to discriminate between better or worse victories.
The strategy itself is essentially the rule we use for making interventions: the causal theory of success.
We need a reference class of victories, on which to base our theory of success.
We need a reference class of defeats, for the purposes of murphyjitsu. This seems to be unusually important, because it looks kind of like avoiding errors is the more important feature, the closer we get to total mastery of the environment. I think this is largely captured by things like doctrine and training, but we haven’t done a good job of capturing it in terms of decisions.
Related to: Macroscopic Predictions. This is kind of like using Gibbs Rule at the level of “interventions we can make” to predict victory.