Why would we assume that someone who commits a crime today is likely to do so again tomorrow, but not in two years?
More time to change one’s mind. I know you have “improvement by punishment” as a separate category, but here I don’t mean improvement as a result of whatever specific that happens in prison, but rather as a result of having enough time to reflect (and not being allowed to commit another crime in the meanwhile).
Situation may change so the motive for the original crime may no longer be relevant. (This effect is probably not intentional, otherwise “how long before the motive becomes irrelevant” would be explicit in sentencing.)
If the crime happened as a result of social pressure, it means two years without that specific pressure. (Though there are other kinds of social influences in the prison, not necessarily better.)
If young men are most likely to commit crime, perhaps becoming two years older can make a difference in some cases? (Though this would imply that younger people should get longer sentences.)
I think certainly all of these may have weak effects, but I think it’s also clear that none of them significantly influence sentencing in most criminal justice systems.
More time to change one’s mind. I know you have “improvement by punishment” as a separate category, but here I don’t mean improvement as a result of whatever specific that happens in prison, but rather as a result of having enough time to reflect (and not being allowed to commit another crime in the meanwhile).
Situation may change so the motive for the original crime may no longer be relevant. (This effect is probably not intentional, otherwise “how long before the motive becomes irrelevant” would be explicit in sentencing.)
If the crime happened as a result of social pressure, it means two years without that specific pressure. (Though there are other kinds of social influences in the prison, not necessarily better.)
If young men are most likely to commit crime, perhaps becoming two years older can make a difference in some cases? (Though this would imply that younger people should get longer sentences.)
I think certainly all of these may have weak effects, but I think it’s also clear that none of them significantly influence sentencing in most criminal justice systems.