I think the argument that explanations for the blue tentacle are bad because they wouldn’t predict the blue tentacle is flawed.
The theory that you are neither hallucinating nor is there some greater intelligent power places far far lower likelihood on waking up with a blue tentacle than the theory that there is either a greater intelligent power or you are hallucinating, even though both are obscenely low. What matters is the likelihood ratio, so waking up with a blue tentacle is strong evidence that there is either a greater intelligent power or you are hallucinating. In the event that I woke up with a blue tentacle, I would adjust my beliefs and expectations accordingly, mainly in the form of having vaguer expectations, and not ruling out “impossible” things so much.
A hypothesis can accumulate a large probability just by all other hypotheses losing probability, even if the hypothesis is not predictive.
Let’s say you flip a coin a very large number of times are get a sequence with roughly equal numbers of heads and tails. If asked to explain how you got that sequence, the explanation that the coin is equally likely to land heads or tails is not bad just because you wouldn’t have expected that particular outcome. It’s by far the most likely hypothesis just because all the others place even lower likelihood on the outcome.
You call the supernatural explanations of the tentacle disguised ignorance, but it’s actually accurate ignorance. Anyone who refuses the supernatural after waking up with a blue tentacle would continue to find themselves shocked as things they deem impossible continue to occur. Yes those who accept the supernatural would be shocked too, but many orders of magnitude less so. (Take “the supernatural” here to mean the hypothesis that there is either some kind of intelligence controlling things or you are hallucinating)
I think the argument that explanations for the blue tentacle are bad because they wouldn’t predict the blue tentacle is flawed.
The theory that you are neither hallucinating nor is there some greater intelligent power places far far lower likelihood on waking up with a blue tentacle than the theory that there is either a greater intelligent power or you are hallucinating, even though both are obscenely low. What matters is the likelihood ratio, so waking up with a blue tentacle is strong evidence that there is either a greater intelligent power or you are hallucinating. In the event that I woke up with a blue tentacle, I would adjust my beliefs and expectations accordingly, mainly in the form of having vaguer expectations, and not ruling out “impossible” things so much.
A hypothesis can accumulate a large probability just by all other hypotheses losing probability, even if the hypothesis is not predictive.
Let’s say you flip a coin a very large number of times are get a sequence with roughly equal numbers of heads and tails. If asked to explain how you got that sequence, the explanation that the coin is equally likely to land heads or tails is not bad just because you wouldn’t have expected that particular outcome. It’s by far the most likely hypothesis just because all the others place even lower likelihood on the outcome.
You call the supernatural explanations of the tentacle disguised ignorance, but it’s actually accurate ignorance. Anyone who refuses the supernatural after waking up with a blue tentacle would continue to find themselves shocked as things they deem impossible continue to occur. Yes those who accept the supernatural would be shocked too, but many orders of magnitude less so. (Take “the supernatural” here to mean the hypothesis that there is either some kind of intelligence controlling things or you are hallucinating)