Re: QB sneaks, the obvious tradeoff that’s not factored into the naive model is the risk of an injury to the QB. Running the QB can be worth it if the expected points added are high enough (goal line or pivotal 4th and 1, or if your QB can often pick up 10+ yards on a draw), but I doubt you want to roll those dice on a midfield 2nd and 4 sneak in the first quarter of a regular-season game.
(God, American football is a beautiful game. I miss the days when I could enjoy it because I didn’t know about the CTE.)
Re: QB sneaks, the obvious tradeoff that’s not factored into the naive model is the risk of an injury to the QB. Running the QB can be worth it if the expected points added are high enough (goal line or pivotal 4th and 1, or if your QB can often pick up 10+ yards on a draw), but I doubt you want to roll those dice on a midfield 2nd and 4 sneak in the first quarter of a regular-season game.
(God, American football is a beautiful game. I miss the days when I could enjoy it because I didn’t know about the CTE.)