While I agree with almost all of the antifaq (the general point is apparently more plausible to economists than non-economists), this is pretty misleading:
“The future cannot be a cause of the past.”
True, but human expectations about the future can be very important in the present.
If you expect that 5 years from now FAI will take over, you won’t bother to make many long-term investments like building factories and training new workers.
Agree with your agreement about the FAQ, and your disagreement with causal decision theory. It’s to be noted that EY acknowledges the limitations of that apparently misleading statement elsewhere with very sophisticated arguments. Though, they were probably judged too tangential to elaborate upon here. In fact, he pioneered alternative perspectives (see: updateless decision theory and timeless decision theory)
While I agree with almost all of the antifaq (the general point is apparently more plausible to economists than non-economists), this is pretty misleading:
“The future cannot be a cause of the past.”
True, but human expectations about the future can be very important in the present. If you expect that 5 years from now FAI will take over, you won’t bother to make many long-term investments like building factories and training new workers.
Agree with your agreement about the FAQ, and your disagreement with causal decision theory. It’s to be noted that EY acknowledges the limitations of that apparently misleading statement elsewhere with very sophisticated arguments. Though, they were probably judged too tangential to elaborate upon here. In fact, he pioneered alternative perspectives (see: updateless decision theory and timeless decision theory)