We all know that human pregnancy doesn’t scale.
We all know that some other problems do scale. So I really don’t understand those 18 points to the comment.
One can always think up many different analogies leading to different conclusions.
Even if we ignore scaling issue, sigma of duration of pregnancy is smth like a week perhaps.
However other processes like creative thinking or inventing new ideas might have sigma comparable to mean.
We all know that human pregnancy doesn’t scale. We all know that some other problems do scale
I’m not sure what you mean by “scale.” When you say that some problems “do scale,” I assume you mean that there are tasks where if you double the resources thrown at them, the amount of time to complete the task will be cut in half.
If you look at large, complicated projects involving new technologies, there seem to be at least several aspects to the project: First, the creative brilliant thinking; second, actual construction, manufacturing, and assembly; and third, the small and large failures which occur along the way, which require rethinking, redesigning, and re-manufacturing various components and concepts.
It is this third aspect which concerns me. Because it appears to be an iterative process which will suck down a minimum amount of time no matter how clever you are and no matter how much resources you throw at a problem.
Not only that, there is also the problem of coordination and communication. Common sense says that this will result in diminishing returns.
Of course nobody knows just what’s involved in creating practical immortality, but I think it’s reasonable to hypothesize that for the above reasons it will necessarily require a good deal more than 20 years no matter how much of a priority it is.
So I really don’t understand those 18 points to the comment.
Probably people thought it was cool that I made reference to The Mythical Man Month.
However other processes like creative thinking or inventing new ideas might have sigma comparable to mean.
If it were just creative thinking or inventing new ideas, I would be inclined to agree. But there is still the iterative process of engineering, building, testing, revising, etc. And there’s a lot that can go wrong with a human body so presumably there are a lot of problems to solve.
We all know that human pregnancy doesn’t scale. We all know that some other problems do scale. So I really don’t understand those 18 points to the comment. One can always think up many different analogies leading to different conclusions. Even if we ignore scaling issue, sigma of duration of pregnancy is smth like a week perhaps. However other processes like creative thinking or inventing new ideas might have sigma comparable to mean.
I’m not sure what you mean by “scale.” When you say that some problems “do scale,” I assume you mean that there are tasks where if you double the resources thrown at them, the amount of time to complete the task will be cut in half.
If you look at large, complicated projects involving new technologies, there seem to be at least several aspects to the project: First, the creative brilliant thinking; second, actual construction, manufacturing, and assembly; and third, the small and large failures which occur along the way, which require rethinking, redesigning, and re-manufacturing various components and concepts.
It is this third aspect which concerns me. Because it appears to be an iterative process which will suck down a minimum amount of time no matter how clever you are and no matter how much resources you throw at a problem.
Not only that, there is also the problem of coordination and communication. Common sense says that this will result in diminishing returns.
Of course nobody knows just what’s involved in creating practical immortality, but I think it’s reasonable to hypothesize that for the above reasons it will necessarily require a good deal more than 20 years no matter how much of a priority it is.
Probably people thought it was cool that I made reference to The Mythical Man Month.
If it were just creative thinking or inventing new ideas, I would be inclined to agree. But there is still the iterative process of engineering, building, testing, revising, etc. And there’s a lot that can go wrong with a human body so presumably there are a lot of problems to solve.