Ah, maybe the way to think about it is that if I think I have a 30% chance of success before the merger, then I need to have a 30%+epsilon chance of my goal being chosen after the merger. And my goal will only be chosen if it is estimated to have the higher chance of success.
And so, if we assume that the chosen goal is def going to succeed post-merger (since there’s no destructive war), that means I need to have a 30%+epsilon chance that my goal has a >50% chance of success post-merger. Or in other words “a close to 50% probability of success”, just as Wei said.
Ah, maybe the way to think about it is that if I think I have a 30% chance of success before the merger, then I need to have a 30%+epsilon chance of my goal being chosen after the merger. And my goal will only be chosen if it is estimated to have the higher chance of success.
And so, if we assume that the chosen goal is def going to succeed post-merger (since there’s no destructive war), that means I need to have a 30%+epsilon chance that my goal has a >50% chance of success post-merger. Or in other words “a close to 50% probability of success”, just as Wei said.