Considering your terms were so in favour of the bet takers, I was also surprised last summer when so few actually committed. Especially considering there were dozens, if not hundreds, of LW members with short timelines who saw your original post.
Perhaps that says something about actual beliefs vs talked about beliefs?
Well, to be fair, I don’t think many people realized how weak some of these benchmarks were. It is hard to tell without digging into the details, which I regrettably did not either.
Thanks for posting this retrospective.
Considering your terms were so in favour of the bet takers, I was also surprised last summer when so few actually committed. Especially considering there were dozens, if not hundreds, of LW members with short timelines who saw your original post.
Perhaps that says something about actual beliefs vs talked about beliefs?
Well, to be fair, I don’t think many people realized how weak some of these benchmarks were. It is hard to tell without digging into the details, which I regrettably did not either.