I assign >10% that Anthropic will at some point pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations.
I think that if Anthropic cannot make a certain product-line safe and then they pivot to scaling up a different kind of model / product-line, I am not counting this as ‘pausing development’.
If they pause all novel capability development and scaling and just let someone else race ahead while pivoting to some other thing like policy or evals or something (while continuing to iterate on existing product lines) then I am counting that as pausing development.
I think that if Anthropic cannot make a certain product-line safe and then they pivot to scaling up a different kind of model / product-line, I am not counting this as ‘pausing development’.
If they pause all novel capability development and scaling and just let someone else race ahead while pivoting to some other thing like policy or evals or something (while continuing to iterate on existing product lines) then I am counting that as pausing development.