So if I have a 1 in 60 million chance of being the decisive vote, and 1,000,000 other voters who also voted for the same candidate could also be seen as the “decisive vote”, wouldn’t that mean that my EV was 640,000⁄1,000,000 = .64 cents?
Intuitively it seems like 640,000 for voting is way overvalued compared to some other actions, and this diffusion of responsibility argument seems to make some sort of sense.
I don’t see why you do that division. The point of being the decisive vote, is that if you didn’t show up to vote, the election would have gone the other way (lets ignore ties for the moment.) You can disregard other people entirely in this model. All that matters is the expected value of your action. Which is enormous.
So if I have a 1 in 60 million chance of being the decisive vote, and 1,000,000 other voters who also voted for the same candidate could also be seen as the “decisive vote”, wouldn’t that mean that my EV was 640,000⁄1,000,000 = .64 cents?
Intuitively it seems like 640,000 for voting is way overvalued compared to some other actions, and this diffusion of responsibility argument seems to make some sort of sense.
I don’t see why you do that division. The point of being the decisive vote, is that if you didn’t show up to vote, the election would have gone the other way (lets ignore ties for the moment.) You can disregard other people entirely in this model. All that matters is the expected value of your action. Which is enormous.
Yeah, you are counting the fact that so many other people are also voting twice if you divide as described above.