If Mars values a coup at 5M, and Earth values a coup at −5M, Earth can buy contracts to win 5M if there is a coup, Mars can buy contracts to win 5M if there isn’t a coup, and they can both cancel their clandestine programs on Ceres, making the interaction positive-sum.
...Not sure that actually works, but it’s an interesting thought.
It works (in theory (assuming rational, liquid markets)) if you assume that they both value risk-reduction and that they don’t care about each others’ finances. There is no way to make the interaction positive sum if we assume the Earth-Mars relationship is a priori zero-sum, since that would be a contradiction.
Note that the cancellation of Earth’s and Mars’ clandestine programs on Ceres does not actually mean Ceres is free of foreign influence. It just means that Ceres is free of direct foreign influence. Earth and Mars have offloaded their operations to privateers and/or indirect bribes to the government of Ceres.
If Mars values a coup at 5M, and Earth values a coup at −5M, Earth can buy contracts to win 5M if there is a coup, Mars can buy contracts to win 5M if there isn’t a coup, and they can both cancel their clandestine programs on Ceres, making the interaction positive-sum.
...Not sure that actually works, but it’s an interesting thought.
It works (in theory (assuming rational, liquid markets)) if you assume that they both value risk-reduction and that they don’t care about each others’ finances. There is no way to make the interaction positive sum if we assume the Earth-Mars relationship is a priori zero-sum, since that would be a contradiction.
Note that the cancellation of Earth’s and Mars’ clandestine programs on Ceres does not actually mean Ceres is free of foreign influence. It just means that Ceres is free of direct foreign influence. Earth and Mars have offloaded their operations to privateers and/or indirect bribes to the government of Ceres.