If we do a 1750 year simulation assuming yearly fresh water additions 80 times the current greenland ice melt rate, we see AMOC collapse.
Before this simulated collapse, the value of something that we think could be an indicator changes.
That indicator has already changed.
So collapse of the AMOC is imminent.
Regarding (1), I think one can assume that if there was any way of getting their simulation engine to produce an AMOC collapse in less than 1750 years, they would have showed that. So, to produce any sort of alarming result, they have to admit that their simulation is flawed, so they can say that collapse might in reality occur much sooner. But then, if the simulation is so flawed, why would one think that the simulation’s indicator has any meaning?
They do claim that the indicator isn’t affected by the simulation’s flaws, but without having detailed knowledge to assess this myself, I don’t see any strong reason to believe them. It seems very much like a paper that sets out to show what they want to show.
The logic seems to be:
If we do a 1750 year simulation assuming yearly fresh water additions 80 times the current greenland ice melt rate, we see AMOC collapse.
Before this simulated collapse, the value of something that we think could be an indicator changes.
That indicator has already changed.
So collapse of the AMOC is imminent.
Regarding (1), I think one can assume that if there was any way of getting their simulation engine to produce an AMOC collapse in less than 1750 years, they would have showed that. So, to produce any sort of alarming result, they have to admit that their simulation is flawed, so they can say that collapse might in reality occur much sooner. But then, if the simulation is so flawed, why would one think that the simulation’s indicator has any meaning?
They do claim that the indicator isn’t affected by the simulation’s flaws, but without having detailed knowledge to assess this myself, I don’t see any strong reason to believe them. It seems very much like a paper that sets out to show what they want to show.