The problem with your argument is that justification is cheap, while accuracy is expensive. The canonical examples of “unjustified” beliefs involve mis-calibration, but calibration is easy to correct just by making one’s beliefs vaguer and less precise. Taken to the extreme, a maximum-entropy probability distribution is perfectly calibrated, but it adds zero bits of mutual information with the environment.
Joseph Knecht:
The problem with your argument is that justification is cheap, while accuracy is expensive. The canonical examples of “unjustified” beliefs involve mis-calibration, but calibration is easy to correct just by making one’s beliefs vaguer and less precise. Taken to the extreme, a maximum-entropy probability distribution is perfectly calibrated, but it adds zero bits of mutual information with the environment.