I think Yair is saying that the people putting in money randomly is what allows “beat the market” to be profitable. Isn’t the return on beating the market proportional to the size of the market? In which case, if more people put money into the prediction markets suboptimally, this would be a moneymaking opportunity for professional forecasters, and you could get more/better information from the prediction markets.
I think Yair is saying that the people putting in money randomly is what allows “beat the market” to be profitable. Isn’t the return on beating the market proportional to the size of the market? In which case, if more people put money into the prediction markets suboptimally, this would be a moneymaking opportunity for professional forecasters, and you could get more/better information from the prediction markets.