More generally when you’re asked a question like “How much do you expect [politician’s name] to win/lose by?” how do you go about generating your response? How do you generate your predictions?
My usual response would look something like this:
“Pre-scandal polls are showing Bodee leading by about 1-2%, but given the recent spying scandal and the strong emphasis of our society on ethical conduct, I expect him to lose by 3-4%.”
If I am speaking to a person who (on my expectations) is following the polls, I would try to explain why my prediction differs from them.
My usual response would look something like this:
“Pre-scandal polls are showing Bodee leading by about 1-2%, but given the recent spying scandal and the strong emphasis of our society on ethical conduct, I expect him to lose by 3-4%.”
If I am speaking to a person who (on my expectations) is following the polls, I would try to explain why my prediction differs from them.