Our estimate of which of the four possibilities is correct is conditional on us living in a universe where we observe that the predictor always guesses correctly. If we put aside cheating (which should almost always be our guess if we observe something happening that seems to defy our understanding of how the universe operates) we should have massive uncertainty concerning how randomness and/or causation operates and thus not assign too low a probability to either (2) or (3).
That’s a valid point. Still I think four would still be the most likely and since the payoff is significantly bigger it’s still worth it to choose just B.
Our estimate of which of the four possibilities is correct is conditional on us living in a universe where we observe that the predictor always guesses correctly. If we put aside cheating (which should almost always be our guess if we observe something happening that seems to defy our understanding of how the universe operates) we should have massive uncertainty concerning how randomness and/or causation operates and thus not assign too low a probability to either (2) or (3).
That’s a valid point. Still I think four would still be the most likely and since the payoff is significantly bigger it’s still worth it to choose just B.